In Focus

From “Axis of Deterrence” to Strategic Attrition: An Assessment of Iran’s Strategic Losses Since October 7, 2023

  Executive Overview Since the events of October 7, 2023, Iran has sought to position itself as a primary strategic beneficiary of escalating regional dynamics, leveraging what it defines as the “Axis of Resistance” and its long-standing doctrine of “forward defense.” However, subsequent developments have increasingly demonstrated that this engagement has not translated into sustainable strategic gains. Instead, it has generated a pattern of cumulative losses affecting Iran’s regional influence,…

The Political Economy of Oil Price Volatility: Drivers, Market Responses, and Socioeconomic Effects

  Executive Summary Oil prices remain a critical determinant of global economic stability and geopolitical dynamics. Their fluctuations are driven by a complex interaction of supply-demand fundamentals, market expectations, geopolitical risks, and financial factors. Price increases are typically associated with rising demand, constrained supply, or heightened geopolitical tensions, while declines often reflect weakened global economic activity, oversupply, or shifts in market sentiment. These fluctuations carry significant consequences for both oil-importing…

“$10 Million Bounty: Iraq’s Hezbollah Militia Leader Ahmad al-Hamidawi and the Shadow War for Power”

  Ahmad al-Hamidawi, also known as Abu Hussein al-Hamidawi, has become one of the most influential and controversial figures in Iraq’s modern security landscape. As the Secretary-General of Kata’ib Hezbollah, an Iran-aligned militia designated as a terrorist organization by the United States, he stands at the center of a network that blends armed power, political influence, and regional strategy. Al-Hamidawi rose to prominence following the killing of his predecessor, Abu…

Islamabad Talks Collapse: Iran Blamed as U.S. Holds Firm Line

Islamabad Talks Collapse: Iran Blamed as U.S. Holds Firm Line Islamabad — Negotiations between Iran and the United States ended in failure this week in the Pakistani capital, with diplomatic sources pointing to deep divisions and Iran’s unwillingness to compromise as the primary cause of the breakdown. The talks, which were held behind closed doors in Islamabad, had been viewed as a potential step toward easing long-standing tensions between Tehran…

Rising Tensions in Iraq: Iran-Backed Militias Under Pressure as U.S. Signals Firm Response

Baghdad — Iran-backed militias in Iraq are facing growing scrutiny and escalating pressure amid their expanding role in the current conflict, as the United States signals a more decisive and forceful approach toward armed groups operating outside state control. Over recent months, these militias—widely believed to be aligned with Tehran—have intensified their activities, including attacks on strategic sites and threats against Western interests in the region. Security analysts and Western…